NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump’s approval of a new bill that would impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries importing Russian petroleum poses a threat not only to China and India but also to others, such as the European Union, that have resisted Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine but bought energy. An analysis by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Russia has earned 1,002 billion euros (around $1.2 trillion at the current exchange rate) from fossil fuel exports, with the share of oil accounting for 68% and the rest coming from gas (over 20%) and coal (over 10%).
While China was the largest importer of Russian oil as of Monday, with purchases worth over 210 billion euros (around $245 billion), India was second with spending of $168 billion, followed by the EU with $125 billion (see chart). China’s total spending on Russian fossil fuels was estimated at nearly 294 billion euros ($343 billion), while India spent over 162 billion euros ($190 billion) on oil and coal. According to CREA’s monthly analysis of Russian exports and fossil fuel sanctions, China’s crude oil imports fell to 3.1 billion euros in November from 3.7 billion euros in October, while India’s imports rose slightly to 2.6 billion euros in November, from 2.5 billion euros in October. Now all eyes are on what Trump does next. Many see the U.S. action as new pressure to bring Russia to the negotiating table and agree to the terms it is pushing. Narendra Taneja, an expert in energy policy and geopolitics, said the new US bill was only passed by the US Congress and does not necessarily mean it will be implemented by the government. “We should wait and watch,” Taneja said. So far, India has focused its purchases on its commercial interests, including from Russia, whose share of India’s oil basket has declined but remains the country’s largest source of crude oil. With Lukoil and Rosneft facing sanctions, Indian purchases from Russia are likely to slow.
